After a disappointing start to 2017, UFC 209 promises to be a welcome return to form.
The UFC Welterweight Championship is on the line in an eagerly anticipated rematch, while two seemingly unstoppable lightweights finally do battle, as they fight for the Interim UFC Lightweight Championship.
Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson II – UFC Welterweight Championship
The main event on Saturday night is the rematch of UFC 205’s Fight of the Night, as champion Tyron Woodley is again tasked with defending his title against Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. After their battle in Madison Square Garden was judged a majority draw, it became clear that these two would meet again to finally prove who the best welterweight in the world is.
Although their fight last November was thrilling, many felt as though neither fighter performed to their full potential. Woodley enjoyed a lot of success in the opening round after taking Wonderboy down, which is why it was so surprising to see him mostly abandon this strategy for the remainder of the fight.
Meanwhile, Wonderboy has also admitted that he failed to ‘let his hands go’ and cause any significant damage to Woodley. Thus, we can hope to see more aggression from both fighters.
It will be interesting to see if Thompson can better implement his kicks, something he struggled to do last time. However, this obviously leaves him susceptible to takedowns so he will have to be cautious when doing so.
Woodley will of course want to close the distance, whether that is to take the fight to the ground, or to land that dynamite right hand of his, which almost finished ‘Wonderboy’ in New York. The path of least resistance will be to shoot on Thompson when a kick is thrown. If the fight ends up on the ground, Woodley clear has the advantage, as he demonstrated in their first fight.
Prediction: Woodley via decision
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson – Interim Lightweight Championship
There is no denying the welterweight title fight’s position at the top of the card. However, for many hardcore fans, this interim lightweight title bout is the real main event – a testament to the fighters involved.
Although interim titles are often criticised for being meaningless, this one feels legitimate, as undefeated Sambo prodigy Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0) finally faces Tony Ferguson (22-3). Ferguson is riding a nine-fight win streak, a statistic made all the more impressive when you consider the fighters that comprise that figure.
This is a case of third time lucky, with the matchup having been scheduled twice before, only to be cancelled due to various injuries.
The fight is possibly the most intriguing in the history of the 155 pound division, as both men are arguably two of the most talented fighters in the UFC. Moreover, fighting styles of these two could hardly be any different.
Nurmagomedov will likely look to employ his feared wrestling against Ferguson, as he did at UFC 205 which allowed him to brutalise and dominate Michael Johnson. However, he will have to be wary of Ferguson’s submission skills, particularly his dreaded D’Arce choke, which he can seemingly lock on at will.
The edge on the feet clearly lies with ‘El Cucuy’, whose unorthodox striking style, combined with his six-inch reach advantage will allow him to keep some distance between him and Khabib.
If, or when Ferguson is taken down, his jiu-jitsu could prove key. Whether that will be enough to stop the sheer force of the Dagestani will be interesting to see.
Prediction: Ferguson via decision
Rashad Evans vs. Dan Kelly – Middleweight
Former UFC light-heavyweight champion Rashad Evans makes his middleweight debut, as he looks for his first win since November 2013. Evans’ devastating knockout loss to Glover Teixeira last April caused him to reevaluate his career, hence the move to 185 pounds.
His opponent on Saturday night is four-time Olympic judoka Dan Kelly, who seems to be a perennial underdog thus far in his UFC career, and this will again be the case against Evans. Despite his almost comically rigid movement inside the Octagon, Kelly is not to be taken lightly. His TKO victory a year ago against Brazilian prospect Antônio Carlos Júnior was one of the biggest upsets of 2016.
With that being said, it is difficult to see anything but a comfortable victory for Evans, whose boxing and wrestling skills far outweigh Kelly’s.
Prediction: Evans via TKO
Lando Vannata vs. David Teymur – Lightweight
This lightweight contest could very well prove to be Fight of the Night, as exciting prospect ‘Groovy’ Lando Vannata takes on up-and-coming Swedish striker David Teymur. Both men will be making just their third respective UFC appearances.
Vannata, age 24, made a huge impression in his first two UFC bouts, as he came close to finishing Tony Ferguson in an all out war, before wheel-kicking John Makdessi into unconsciousness in his second outing. It isn’t hard to see why he is the biggest favorite on the main card by some distance.
Teymur won’t be phased by this, as he has finished both of his UFC opponents so far, and will be looking to do the same to Vannata. The winner will emerge as the one of the top prospects at 155 pounds.
Prediction: Vannata via KO
Alistair Overeem vs. Mark Hunt – Heavyweight
The opening fight of UFC 209 sees two former K-1 world champions clash, as Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt will lock horns once again. It seems rather strange that these two heavyweight titans are placed at the bottom of the main card, but when the action begins on Saturday night, I doubt anyone will care. This is a rematch of their 2008 fight in ‘Dream’, in which the Dutchman promptly dispatched Hunt via submission.
Overeem is coming off a brutal knockout against champion Stipe Miocic last September, a fight which saw him come agonizingly close to finally adding UFC gold to his illustrious collection. Meanwhile, we haven’t seen Hunt in action since UFC 200, where he was manhandled by Brock Lesnar, who later failed a drug test.
Due to his fury over Lesnar’s USADA situation, we can expect to see a fired up Mark Hunt as he faces another notorious former steroid user. Overeem’s deteriorating chin could cost him this fight as he’s up against arguably the hardest puncher in MMA. As a result, ‘The Reem’ will likely utilize a game plan that involves him staying on the outside, picking Hunt off without taking any damage himself.
Prediction: Overeem via decision (yes, you read that correctly)
