Brazilian fighters will be out in force, looking to put on a show in front of their home crowd as the UFC comes to Fortaleza this Saturday, March 11 for UFC Fight Night 106.
Belfort vs. Gastelum – Middleweight
The main event on Saturday night is a classic example of experience vs youth, as 20-year UFC veteran Vitor Belfort, who is 39-years of age, has the unenviable task of facing Kelvin Gastelum, 25, in the octagon. To put the gulf of age and experience into perspective, when young Kelvin was just five years old, ‘The Phenom’ had already established himself as a force in the sport by winning the UFC 12 heavyweight tournament.
However, that was then, and now Belfort is clearly at the tail-end of his illustrious career as his recent TKO losses against Gegard Mousasi and ‘Jacare’ Souza have demonstrated that he can no longer compete with the elite middleweights. With that being said, Belfort will be relishing the prospect of one last hurrah in front of his native Brazilian crowd.
That will not come easy, as Gastelum is an undeniably talented, albeit troubled, contender. This will be the American’s second bout since his forced return to 185 pounds, effectively retiring Tim Kennedy at UFC 206 in his first. Gastelum intends to eventually drop back down to welterweight, though his well-documented weight issues will see the UFC reluctant to allow him to do so.
Despite being one of the shortest middleweights in the UFC at 5ft9”, Gastelum is 3-0 in his sporadic run at 185 pounds. His superior boxing, alongside his strong wrestling base and granite chin, should see him extend this record to 4-0 against the diminishing Belfort.
Prediction: Gastelum via TKO
Maurício Rua vs. Gian Villante – Light-heavyweight
In the co-main event, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Maurício ‘Shogun’ Rua squares off against the promising Gian Villante. This will be Shogun’s first fight since UFC 198 in Brazil, in which he pipped Corey Anderson to a decision victory.
Despite no longer being the unstoppable force that won the legendary 2005 Pride middleweight tournament, Shogun is ranked no. 6 at 205 pounds, to the surprise of many. With light heavyweight currently a wasteland, a decisive victory for the Brazilian could inexplicably see him enter title contention, though Villante will have title aspirations of his own.
The American Villante is a powerful, athletic wrestler and is huge for the division, standing at 6ft3”. Couple that, as well as the fact that he’s built like a bull, and its obvious he’s a force to be reckoned with. His last fight was last December in Albany, where he earned a TKO win over Saparbek Safarov in the Fight of the Night contest.
Despite that victory, Villante’s striking was exposed as he was dropped by an already wobbled Safarov. Against an elite Muay Thai specialist like Shogun, Villante will need to have patched up the holes in his stand-up game to win this one.
Prediction: Shogun via unanimous decision
Edson Barboza vs. Beneil Dariush – Lightweight
We can expect to see some seriously swollen legs when the hardest kicker in MMA, Edson Barboza, faces off against Muay Thai black belt Beneil Dariush in a potential ‘Fight of the Night’ candidate. The Brazilian Barboza is currently ranked no. 5 at 155 pounds, whereas Dariush is ranked no. 9, making this an important match-up in the lightweight title contention picture.
Both men are long-time lightweight contenders, each currently riding a two-fight win streak. Barboza’s last outing was a decision victory over division veteran Gilbert Melendez last summer, while Dariush beat Rashid Magomedov in November.
Dariush’s stand-up is ever improving under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, as he showed with his knockout of James Vick last June. However, it is unlikely that he will enjoy much success on the feet when he tastes the crisp and powerful striking of Barboza. Instead, the Iranian-American will seek to put his world championship-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills to good use by submitting Barboza.
Barboza has submission losses against Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone, so a submission win is a real possibility for Dariush. The question is whether he can do so before Edson has his way with him on the feet.
Prediction: Barboza via unanimous decision
Jussier Formiga vs. Ray Borg – Flyweight
Two top flyweights will meet in the Octagon on Saturday night when submission specialists Jussier Formiga (ranked no. 3) and Ray Borg (no. 8) do battle. Formiga is coming off a comfortable unanimous decision win over Dustin Ortiz last September, while Borg dominated prospect Louis Smolka at UFC 207 in his last outing.
Despite that impressive display from Borg, he weighed well over the flyweight limit for the second time in his UFC career – possibly the only issue currently holding him back from title contention.
Both Formiga and Borg are back-taking specialists, so we can expect to see some exciting scrambles and submission attempts. However, the Brazilian Formiga has just one UFC finish, so this one will probably go to the judges’ scorecards.
Not to be too cynical, but the winner could very well end up being the man against whom Mighty Mouse shatters Anderson Silva’s title defence record, at some point later this year.
Prediction: Borg via unanimous decision
Bethe Correia vs. Marion Reneau – Women’s Bantamweight
Former title challenger Bethe Correia makes her first appearance in her native Brazil since UFC 190, where she was left face down on the canvas by then champion Ronda Rousey; Correia faces exciting contender Marion Reneau. For the amount of stick Correia receives, her UFC record of 4-2 isn’t too bad, with her only defeats being a split decision against Raquel Pennington and that famous TKO loss to the aforementioned Rousey.
Her opponent, the Belizean Reneau is well-rounded, with ever-improving striking and solid submission skills. Reneau actually holds a triangle choke submission win over current straweight title challenger Jéssica Andrade, as well as a recent TKO win over Milana Dudieva last November.
Reneau has trained with Cris Cyborg and Gabi Garcia, and will therefore be unfazed by the size and strength of her Brazilian opponent. Furthermore, at 39 years old, a win is imperative for Reneau.
Prediction: Reneau via submission
Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means – Welterweight
The opening fight of Saturday’s main card sees Brazilian Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira seek revenge over Tim ‘The Dirty Bird’ Means. The two met in a closely contested match-up in December at UFC 207, in which Means knocked out Oliveira with two knee strikes which were deemed illegal by referee Dan Miragliotta, resulting in a no-contest.
Despite coming in as the underdog last time around, Means now enters as favourite, as he looks to finish Oliveira again, hopefully in compliance with the unified rules this time.
The American’s superior, crafty striking should be enough to put away his opponent, though he will have be wary of Oliveira’s powerful Muay Thai, which caused Means some trouble in their first fight.
Prediction: Means via TKO
