Break it Down: Luke Barnatt vs. Mark Munoz

On Saturday afternoon the UFC will host their 66th instalment of their Fight Night series, with the event being held in the Mall of Asia Arena in Manila, Philippines. Prior to former champions Frankie Edgar and Urijah Faber main event super-fight, Cambridge’s Luke Barnatt (8-2) will dance with Filipino-American Mark Munoz (13-6) on the main card in what will be the 37-year old Munoz’s swan-song.

The aptly-nicknamed Luke “Bigslow” Barnatt, worked his way into the UFC through a stint on the seventeenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Although he was unsuccessful in winning the overall tournament, Barnatt was able to impress the UFC brass enough to be offered a contract once the show was complete. Initially Barnatt made the most of the opportunity. He entertained in his first bout, a back-and-forth slugfest with resulted in a unanimous decision win over fellow TUF 17 cast-mate Collin Hartt. His second performance was even more impressive, as he sniped Andrew Craig with a right-hand before sealing the deal with a rear-naked choke, picking up the “Fight of the Night” bonus too. Barnatt’s fine form continued in his third fight, a highlight-reel first round destruction of Swede Mats Nilsson at the UFC’s last trip to London.

Unfortunately, the Barnatt hype train has slowed since due to two very lacklustre performances. He lost both bouts via razor-thin decision to Sean Strickland and Roger Narvaez. It’s not the actual losses themselves that are alarming, because to Barnatt’s credit, the majority of the MMA media scored both bouts in his favour, but it was how he performed. The once aggressive and dynamic Barnatt had swapped his multi-faceted striking attack for a much more patient and reserved style of striking, focusing on trading one or two strike combinations with with his opponents, leaving the infamously unreliable judges to deal with closely contested rounds. The losses have put the 27-year old in a tricky position. He has displayed the necessary skills required to become a mainstay in the UFC’s middleweight division, but a third-straight loss will likely see him released from the UFC and forced back to the regional circuit.

After a highly successful amateur wrestling career which saw him earn the status as a two-time NCAA Division I All-American, Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz decided to enter into the world of mixed martial arts a little over eight years ago. He started off as a light-heavyweight, where he won three straight fights before being picked up by the new defunct WEC promotion. Munoz was able to pick up a couple of first round stoppages before the promotion merged its higher weight classes with the UFC, thus giving Munoz a shot in the world famous Octagon. His debut did not go to plan, as he was nearly decapitated by a Matt Hamill head-kick after a tentative start.

After the loss Munoz made the drop to 185lbs and over the course of his next eight fights, Munoz solidified his position as a Top 5 middleweight, winning seven fights which included wins over the likes of CB Dolloway, Demian Maia and Chris Leben. In July of 2012, Munoz met current UFC Middleweight champion Chris Weidman in a number one contenders bout. This was where the decline began for Munoz, as he was brutally knocked out early in the second round.

Since then, Munoz has struggled. He bounced back with a dominant victory over the inconsistent Tim Boestch, but then went on to lose his next three all via first round stoppage. First he was head-kicked once again by training partner Lyoto Machida, before being submitted twice via rear-naked choke by Gegard Mousasi and Roan Carneiro respectively. The Mousasi and Machida losses were not surprising, both are a permanent fixture in the UFC’s Middleweight rankings and have had great success at light-heavyweight too, but it was the loss to Carneiro that was the most telling.

Roan Carneiro is by no means an easy win for anybody, but the 36-year old had struggled previously against mid-level competition as a welterweight prior to the fight. He had returned to the UFC after an underwhelming previous stint which saw the 3rd degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt submitted twice. Carneiro was able to jump-up in weight and easily have his way with Munoz, choking him out in under two minutes.Following the loss, Munoz announced that he will retire from professional mixed martial arts following his final bout against Barnatt.

So to recap, Barnatt has everything to lose, whereas a loss doesn’t matter all too much to Munoz. Munoz is in a rather unique position with one foot already out the door, as it becomes increasingly difficult to predict how exactly he’ll perform on Saturday night. Some suggest it could look like Chris Lytle’s last performance against Dan Hardy, with Munoz leaving absolutely everything inside the cage and giving Barnatt the fight of his life. Others however have looked to Munoz’s recent form over the past twelve months and his ever-declining durability and expect Barnatt to win violently.

I lean towards the latter. Chris Lytle was still performing to a high-standard before his retirement bout, whereas Munoz has looked a shell of his former self. He has suffered from three significant knockout losses in his career and even his primary strength, his wrestling and scrambling ability, has looked predictable and more porous than ever.

Training and preparation for for this fight adds another interesting variable to consider. Barnatt has endured a twelve-week training camp, caused by the fact he was scheduled to meet Clint Hester in April, only for Hester to be ruled out with an injury. That could go either way, he might be burnt out from the long camp or he may have used it to improve indefinitely. Barnatt has spent the entirety of this camp at Alliance MMA in San Diego alongside Phil Davis, who stylistically is the ideal training partner to prepare for a wrestler like Munoz . Munoz on the other hand recently announced the closure of his longtime gym the Reign Training Centre and has been training at the RVCA gym alongside the likes of Michael Bisping, Kendall Grove and Patrick Cummins. Kendall Grove, a former opponent of Munoz, should be able to emulate Barnatt perfectly. Both stand 6’6, with an 80-plus inch reach and they both throw their punches in a similar fashion.

There’s two ways I envision this fight playing out and neither leave the first round. I could see Munoz looking to bullrush Barnatt from the opening bull, tearing down the gangly Barnatt with his double-leg takedown, before overwhelming him with a flurry of his notoriously heavy-handed ground and pound. On the contrary, I could also envision Barnatt catching an overzealous Munoz as he tries to enter his wheelhouse early on.There are a lot of variables going into this fight, but if there is one thing that is blatantly obvious it is that Munoz is not the same fighter he was three years ago.

Expect Munoz to come out aggressive, immediately looking for a takedown. If Munoz fails to set up his takedowns as per usual, Barnatt will be prepared and will either able to defend correctly and circle off, or he will time Munoz’s advancement with an uppercut or knee. Barnatt’s eleven-inch reach advantage will make it even more difficult for Munoz to get inside with his looping hooks and given Barnatt’s recent training with Phil Davis, I don’t think it’ll be easy to take him down. At some-point early on Munoz will over-commit and Barnatt will be able to capitalise, crushing Munoz and his hopes of leaving the sport on a high note.

Prediction: Luke Barnatt via knockout in Round 1