Preview: UFC 201 – Lawler vs. Woodley

Robbie Lawler returns to action for the first time since his split decision win over Carlos Condit back in January, with a title fight against Tyron Woodley this weekend, as the headlining fight of UFC 201.

Remarkably, Tyron Woodley has somehow managed to jump over the queue of fighters above him in the rankings to get his shot at welterweight gold and he’s probably the only person who feels he deserves it. Unfortunately for Woodley, the man currently holding the title is a maelstrom of violence and one of the most durable fighters in the division, and whilst Woodley does possess fight finishing skills, Lawler walks into this fight as the overwhelming favourite. Based on his recent performances, rightly so.

Lawler has provided stability to a division that was in turmoil upon GSP’s departure, and has settled all doubts surrounding his ability to be the number one welterweight in the world with wins over Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit in the lead up to this fight. Lawler has aged like a fine wine and appears to have filled the gaps in his skill set that were apparent during the first half of his career – mainly his wrestling and takedown defence, something that Woodley must be cursing the MMA Gods for. Five years ago, Woodley would have been the favourite to win this fight as his wrestling base would have nullified Lawler’s attacks, however, that window has now passed and Lawler looks every bit the complete article at 170lbs. That said, Lawler’s one weakness that can be exploited is his willingness to exchange in brawls with his opponents, opening himself up to get hit. If Woodley can find a way to exploit this, then we could see a new champion at 170lbs however the chances of that are very slim.

The co-main event of UFC 201 was supposed to be a flyweight title fight between Demetrious Johnson and Wilson Reis, however with Johnson pulling out through injury and Reis now competing on the undercard, the co-main event is instead an exciting strawweight fight between rising star Rose Namajunas and undefeated prospect Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Namajunas shot to fame with the UFC fans following her stint on the Ultimate Fighter, where she lost in the final to Carla Esparza and yet won the affection of the fans in the process. Since the Ultimate Final finale, Namajunas has gone 3-0 with wins over Angela Hill, Paige VanZant and Tecia Torres, looking more and more dominant with each performance. Kowalkiewicz comes in to the fight undefeated in both her stint in the UFC, having taken out Randa Markos and Heather Jo Clark, and in her professional career as a whole. Kowalkiewicz has dangerous striking skills and will look to keep Namajunas on the feet as long as she can. That’s easier said than done, but if she’s going to win the fight, it’ll be in the striking exchanges.

Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger meet in a welterweight bout that could have big repercussions for the loser. Brown is an entertaining fighter that fought his way from the brink of being sacked, to contender status after going 7-0 between 2012-14. Since then, however, he has only managed to win one of his last four fights, dropping decisions against Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, and most recently being submitted by Demian Maia. The one positive Brown has going for him is his ability to produce exciting fights, win or lose, and he does possess dynamite in his hands when he can get them firing. Jake Ellenberger will be hoping he can get a much needed win over Matt Brown when the two fighters meet, with his only win since 2013 being a submission over a past-his-prime Josh Koscheck back at UFC 184 in February, 2015. Ellenberger has looked poor in his recent outings in the UFC and a loss to Brown will most likely see him get his marching orders from the UFC brass. Ellenberger needs to dial back the clock and rediscover the form he showed when he first signed with the UFC, but don’t hold your breath.

Francisco Rivera and Érik Pérez meet in a battle of wild bantamweights in another fight that could have employment implications – for Rivera at least. Having gone 1-4 in his last five, Rivera will need to get an impressive win over Pérez if he’s to keep his job in the UFC. He’s more than capable of doing this and yet, so often in his career, Rivera sacrifices tactical nous for entertainment when faced with opponents he’s capable of beating, even if it means picking up a loss. Rivera holds grenades in his hands and with one swing of his right he can end the fight in an instant, he just needs to land it. Pérez is a well rounded fighter with the ability to finish the fight on the feet or on the canvas and, as long as he doesn’t get sucked in to a fire fight with Rivera and fights intelligently, there’s no reason he can’t pick up the win and take himself to 3-2 in his last five outings.

Former flyweight title contender Ian McCall will be looking to secure his first win in two years when he faces Justin Scoggins in the opening fight of the main card. McCall has been out with an injury for close to a year and he’s been given no easy task upon his return. Scoggins is a tough fighter riding a two-fight win streak coming in to this fight, with victories over Ray Borg and Josh Sampo. Scoggins is the rare breed of flyweight who possess knockout power, although he’ll need to do something special to finish McCall who’s never lost via KO in his career. McCall is the more experienced fighter coming into this bout and, despite recent form and injuries, he should have enough about him to see off the challenge of Scoggins.

Pick of the Prelims: Pearson vs. Masvidal, Reis vs. Sandoval and Benoit vs. Serrano.