Break it Down: Steven Ray vs. Leonardo Mafra

Scotland’s Steven Ray (17-5) will have the honour of kicking off the BT Sport main card in his hometown of Glasgow on Saturday, when he scraps with the ultra-aggressive Brazilian Leonardo Mafra (12-2).

Steven “Braveheart” Ray is a 25-year old lightweight that originates from Fife but now resides in Glasgow, where he is apart of Scotland’s premiere MMA gym the Dinky Ninjas Fight Team. For this camp, Ray has branched out for his training and has been spending time alongside former Cage Warriors veterans Joseph Duffy and Tom Breese at the world renowned Tristar gym in Montreal, Canada. Ray endeared a highly successful career on the UK circuit before making the jump to the UFC, winning both Cage Warriors’ and BAMMA’s Lightweight titles. He made his UFC debut in April on two weeks notice, smashing leg-lock expert Marcin Bandel en-route to a second round TKO stoppage.

Skill-wise, Ray’s grappling is definitely his bread and butter. Despite not originating from a traditional grappling background, Ray has a very well-rounded grappling base. He has what I would describe as natural wrestling ability and is excellent at changing levels and blasting through opponent with the double-leg takedown. As displayed in his bout with Bandel, Ray has very heavy ground and pound and uses it well to set-up submissions too. He is only a blue belt in BJJ, however the skills he has displayed thus far would indicate that he is at a much higher level.

Over the course of the last two years Ray’s striking has dramatically improved, however it is still the most undeveloped aspect of his MMA toolkit. Ray, a southpaw, usually starts off fights by flicking out a leg-kick from his lead right-leg which functions as a range finder. Once he has his opponent measured and within range, he will usually look to exploit them with his punches. His best strike by far is his straight left-hand, which he used to drop both Ivan Buchinger and Curt Warburton, however he does have a tendency to overkill the technique and hasn’t yet learned how to disguise the punch with other strikes.

His opponent Leonardo “Macarrao” Mafra, 26, is a BJJ brown belt who hails from the south of Brazil. Mafra begun MMA when the notorious Chute Boxe Academy branched out to his hometown of Balneario Camboriu, Sanra Catarina. More recently however, Mafra has been making trips to the west coast of America to train with the American Kickboxing Academy.

He originally made his way to the UFC through a stint on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil. The long-time welterweight made the jump up to middleweight for the tournament and lost to eventual winner Cezar Ferreira in the quarter-finals. He was awarded a spot on the finale but fell again to Thiago Perpeuto in a back-and-forth tussle that saw both men sustain significant damage. He returned to the Brazilian circuit shortly after a racked up five straight wins via TKO inside of two years and was awarded the opportunity to take on welterweight contender Rick Story on short notice. Despite hurting Story with a heavy left-hook early, Mafra would go on to the lose the fight via second submission. He picked up his first UFC victory this past March, thoroughly dominating Cain Carrizosa in his lightweight debut.

Like every product of the Chute Boxe Academy, Mafra is an aggressive Muay Thai stylist with who loves nothing more than to throw bones with opponents. He does an excellent job of leading with his left-hand, in the form of either a stiff jab or left-hook, before ending the combination with a heavy outside low-kick. In close quarters he is slick at blending elbows into his combinations and will also incorporate knee strikes if a clinch is initiated. One downside to Mafra’s striking is that he does like to get involved in wild exchanges in which he leaves himself wide open to straight counter strikes.

Being a brown belt in BJJ Mafra is no slouch on the mat either and does a good job of securing top position and letting off with his relentless ground and pound. From the bottom he has an active guard and is good at recovering position, however in the past he has been bullied around by stronger opponents- which probably won’t happen now he’s made the cut to 155lbs. His overall wrestling is decent, however it’s the facet of mixed martial arts that he needs to improve on the most if he wishes to grow from a prospect into a contender.

This is a tough fight to pick, especially considering both guys strengths play into the others main area of weakness. They match-up very evenly as well, with both men coming in as stocky 5″10 lightweights with a 70″ reach. I lean towards Ray here, purely because I think he will be able to emulate the same game plan that Story had success with. It will not be easy for the Scotsman though, who will likely have to endure some of Mafra’s firepower on the feet, en-route to collecting takedowns and picking up a hard-fought decision victory.

Prediction: Stevie Ray via unanimous decision