Break It Down: Scott Askham vs. Antonio Dos Santos Jr.

Tomorrow when the UFC hits Berlin, UFC newbies Scott Askham and Antonio Dos Santos Jr. (better known as Junior Alpha) will face off in a middleweight contest to be broadcast live on UFC Fight Pass.

Both men have had just one fight in the UFC so far, and both conceded respectable losses. Dos Santos suffered a freak injury during the second round of an absolute rip-roaring debut against Daniel Sarafian, in which he dislocated his finger during a wild exchange and took it upon himself to halt the bout and casually “relocate” it. As a fighter is not permitted to pause the fight of his own accord, the referee followed procedure and called the fight off, awarding the victory to Sarafian. An unfortunate turn of events, made worse in no small part by the fact that it was shaping up to be an incredible fight.

What we did learn however, is that Junior Alpha hasn’t a single fuck to speak of. He ducks his head, bites his mouthpiece and throws every strike with absolutely murderous intention and is more than happy to take one to give one. Conventional wisdom would suggest that this attitude is a predicator of poor technique but although Dos Santos throws with reckless abandon, his execution of strikes is particularly crisp and clinical. His Muay Thai based style mixed with a Brazilian brawler mentality draws comparisons to MMA pioneer Pedro Rizzo, who was famed for his gargantuan legs and sickeningly effective leg kicks: two other areas in which Dos Santos takes after him.

Doncaster’s Scott Askham made his UFC debut against Magnus Cedenblad away from home in Stockholm, Sweden. He lost that fight by unanimous decision, but the most memorable part of that fight by far came in the second round courtesy of an absolutely perfect push kick by Askham right to the mush of the big Swede, instantly dropping him to the floor. He then proceeded to continue to batter Cedenblad up against the cage, having him visibly hurt. His opponent recovered however, and came back to control the final round and win a decision.

Askham’s successes in the bout were often short lived. He was taken down repeatedly, and controlled from inside his guard for lengthy periods. Although maintaining a high guard and occasionally threatening with triangles and armbars, he never managed to put anything meaningful together from his back. His best moments were on the feet. Other than the dramatic front kick and subsequent thirty seconds, Askham wasn’t able to land not much more than a few well-placed body kicks from the outside and some sneaky clinch strikes before being dragged to the ground.

It’ll come as a relief to the 6’3″ Askham that tomorrow he’ll be back where he belongs: in the cage with a smaller man in front of him. Dos Santos stands at just 5’10”, as opposed to the giant Cedenblad who matched Askham’s height and eclipsed him in overall size. As a man who relies on his height for both his outside striking prowess and devastating clinch game, Scott will most certainly have a few things in store for the stocky Brazilian. We can expect the full Askham arsenal – rangey roundhouses, knees up the middle and relentless clinch striking up against the cage. From the outside the southpaw will be aiming to launch his left shin into the exposed body or head of his opponent. If Dos Santos begins to get reckless on the inside, he’ll duck his head and that is when Scott is most likely to wrench it down even further to meet his rapidly accelerating knee.

Contrary to what we saw in the Cedenblad fight, Askham actually has some good takedown defence. Cedenblad is a great wrestler and an enormous man whereas Dos Santos, despite holding a BJJ black belt probably doesn’t have the wrestling ability to get the fight to the ground and apply any ground advantage that he may have. I think that this fight will play out on the feet and in the clinch.  If Askham can stay patient, wait on the outside and grab a dominant clinch position when the Brazilian gets overly aggressive then he has a real chance of making it a short night for Dos Santos.

For Dos Santos, it’s all about staying composed. Although his aggression is one of his key assets, he has to know when to use it. Ducking his head and throwing bombs at Askham may yield some benefits, but considering the risk he’d put himself at it would be unadvisable. Instead of focusing so much on his opponent’s chin, Dos Santos should look down and think of his opponent’s legs. I mentioned before Junior has some ungodly leg kicks, and as a lanky middleweight Askham’s skinnier legs will likely start to give out if Junior’s heavy shinbone connects enough times. However Askham is a southpaw so any kick thrown from Dos Santos’ back leg would connect with the inside of his right thigh rather than the outside of his left, the latter usually being the most debilitating. Still, inside leg kicks hurt like hell too and will offset Askham’s stance quite drastically. What’s more Dos Santos also happens to be fond of throwing leg kicks with both of his tree trunk legs so Askham would be well advised to keep his distance, or if he’s really brave – check them.

Despite the height difference, Dos Santos’ hands could still be a huge factor in this fight. Like many taller fighters, Askham has a disconcerting habit of holding his head high and his chin exposed. Maybe this is just a part of his rangey style and he’s more comfortable this way, or maybe it’s a genuine flaw in his game. In either case, it’s a target for Dos Santos’ devastating left hook. As I was saying earlier, Junior isn’t just a brawler with great power. He throws his punches very cleanly with considered technique, keeping his arm parallel to the ground when he fires his left hook. This is where a lot of his power comes from and if he can apply it to Askham’s exposed chin maybe during an opening or on the break from clinching, one shot could spell a KO victory for Dos Santos.

I believe that this fight will be contested on the feet and with two hugely differing striking styles, there are many ways that this fight could end. Both guys have multiple routes to victory making it hard to make a meaningful prediction. However if forced, I’d have to say that although my heart tells me to root for my fellow Brit – my brain still says Brazilian.

Prediction: Dos Santos via KO (Punch) – Round 1