Tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night in Glasgow, Scotland will see the UK’s most high-level fighter in Michael Bisping (26-7) take on former middleweight title challenger Thales Leites (25-4) in a main event match up.
Michael Bisping has been a top ten middleweight for the vast majority of his UFC career, and has been agonisingly close to being awarded a title shot on many occasions. He has had mixed success in the last three to four years having alternated between wins and losses in his last eight fights, losing to only the highest level of competition. At thirty six years old, his chances of fighting for UFC gold are becoming increasingly slim and the time is now for him to make a statement and lay claim to that ever-elusive title shot.
Thales Leites was first signed to the UFC in 2006 and made his mark as a phenomenal Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu stylist. Following a five fight win streak, he contested for the middleweight title against pound-for-pound great Anderson Silva in a fight that went down in the history books for all the wrong reasons, being one of the most boring UFC fights ever. Leites lost a decision in that fight, and following another lackluster split-decision loss to Alessio Sakara months later, Leites was controversially cut from the organisation and forced to fight elsewhere. After going 6-1 outside of the UFC he was resigned to the organisation in 2013, winning all five of his subsequent fights and stopping three of his opponents.
Unfortunately for Michael Bisping, the days of the one dimensional Thales Leites have been and gone. The Brazilian has re-emerged as a much improved striker after training at the world renowned Nova União gym alongside the likes of Jose Aldo and Renan Barao. Most noticeably he is now in possession of a particularly explosive right hand kill-shot. This was showcased in an eye-opening performance against the powerful kickboxer Francis Carmont last August, in which Leites TKO’d the big Frenchman with a blistering combination up against the cage punctuated by two fight-finishing right hands.
Michael Bisping has made a career of being the superior technical striker. With a ridiculous work rate and unmatched cardio, the sheer volume of his strikes is often enough to dominate the fight and causes many opponents to crumble. He is excellent and cutting angles, keeping distance with his lead leg and lunging in to land three or four punch combinations before ducking out and re-establishing the range with another kick. Despite his excellent striking skills, we have seen power strikers cause Bisping some problems. As seen in his infamous KO loss to Dan Henderson (which we don’t talk about), Bisping has a tendency to get caught on the chin in fights against hard-hitters. Dennis Kang knocked him down back at UFC 105 but eventually succumbed to a series of knees and punches, and Bisping was also dropped with a left hook in his last fight against CB Dollaway, which to his credit he recovered fantastically from and came back to win a convincing decision.
Ironically, I think that in many ways this vulnerability to the single shot is a somewhat natural consequence of the style that Bisping has used to great success for so many years. The sheer amount of exchanges that he initiates in every fight is what often overwhelms his opponents, and what wins him so many dominant decisions. However if you consider the length of time that Bisping spends in the pocket during any one fight, the chance of him getting caught on the chin with one punch is always there.
Besides the one-punch power of Thales Leites, we also have to of course consider his bread and butter. A true BJJ savant, Leites shines on the mat and has suffocating top control. Of course Bisping knows to avoid this position and is no stranger to having to avoid the takedown, having become increasingly difficult to get to the ground as his career has progressed. Unlike the list of wrestlers that make up much of Bisping’s record, Leites is unlikely to be shooting double and single legs in an effort to gain control the fight. More likely, if Leites wants the fight on the ground he will do what he normally does and attempt to execute trips and throws from the standing clinch up against the cage and hold the Brit down, preventing him from fighting on his feet where he is most effective.
This was a tactic utilised against Bisping by Tim Kennedy back in April of last year, which earned him a convincing unanimous decision victory. Typically Bisping does fare well against those intent on grappling with him, displaying excellent defensive wrestling and a dogged determination to come off on top in scrambles. He also has an underrated defensive guard, opting to place his feet on the hips of his opponent in order to create enough space to stand up. However Kennedy was able to shut down Bisping on the mat and against a grappler the calibre of Thales Leites things might start to go very bad, very quickly if Bisping finds himself on his back once again.
We should see the patented Bisping game plan against Leites tomorrow. Stay on the outside and land your shots while avoiding the takedown and the big right hand. There’s no reason to think that Bisping can’t work his magic once again and hopefully string two wins together for the first time since 2011, but Leites presents a unique challenge on the ground with the added chaos element of a huge right hand. This should be an interesting main event for the Scottish fans.
Prediction: Michael Bisping via unanimous decision
